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Archive for the ‘Social media future predictions’ Category

Three years ago a video presentation landed in my email box and boomed; Social media is here to stay!

Maybe so, but every trend, every movement or social experience, rides its own cycle. And every ride eventually takes a curvaceous turn downhill.

Debbie Meltzer, Canimpact Blog, Brian Solis

What will happen after Social Media peaks?

As I ink this blog, LinkedIn is experiencing “float euphoria” and the thrill of a Wall Street rush. Within hours, their 7.84 million shares, created a market value of over $9 billion.

So how much will LinkedIn make in profits in 2011? Zero… That’s right, with all the hyperbolic aggrandizement – a big fat zero.

LinkedIn is the first social network to go public, trail blazing ahead of Facebook, Twitter, Zynga and Groupon. These sites are set to pursue their own IPO in the next few months. Oh yeah, this is a hot industry. It’s sizzling.

Punters say Facebook and LinkedIn’s potential revenue growth, has not even scratched the surface of markets and opportunities.

How could they? They haven’t even begun to ankle their way through the largest Internet user’s market – China.

Zuckerman gets this… So much so, he is learning Chinese, co-habitating with his Chinese girlfriend and planning a second visit to the mainland shortly.

But China and its freedom-of-information phobia is no match, even for the invincible Zuck.

Somehow I won’t be surprised if Facebook announces plans to float soon after Zuckerman’s Chinese courtship capitulates at the feet of the Chinese Firewall. After all, that is the precise moment when the daunting truth will sink in:

Facebook’s market share is about to reach its peak.

 

“With fewer new users signing up, social network users will be more sophisticated and discerning about the people and brands they want to engage with,” said Debra Aho Williamson, eMarketer principal analyst.

From this year onwards, social networks will need to cement their relationships with users, particularly people aged 35 and older, to keep them engaged.

Although market share is about to peak, market opportunities will continue to grow…For now.

B-2-B Social Media is finally carving its own slice in the action. More than half (54%) of B-2-B companies plan to increase spending on social media this year, according to a report from Worldcom PR Group.

But those who will neglect a holistic approach to customer engagement, those who get caught up in the Social Media whirlwind, are bound to experience a profit backlash. I am a staunch believer that using a wide range of marketing methods produces better results than executing only one or two activities.

According to Gary Halliwel, co-founder of NetProspex, Social Media will penetrate deeper into company structures.

A study his company conducted showed marketers were still the biggest social media users.  Interestingly, human resources professionals ranked 2nd while CEOs were number 11 on the list, outpaced by office managers and customer service representatives.

But a growing number of CEOs, who realize the potential to grow opinion leadership, are embracing the “Power of Now.”

What about the B-2-C market? What about brands? According to Social Media Futurist Brian Solis: “We are looking at decades of almost anti-social brand behavior…..”

I tend to agree, brands to date, nurtured a one way channel between them and the consumer.   As marketers we were all structured to create compelling stories and indoctrinate them through persuasion.

Social media is forcing all of us to become more intimate, more transparent and engaging. Companies are not structured to be so today. Brands and their entire organizations need to undergo organizational transformations to accommodate for a new social speak, social intelligence and social connect.

The transition, although painful is inevitable.

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Social TV trends, Debbie Meltzer, Canimpact, Impact

The social TV revolution?

Social TV, On-demand TV, Dual screens, Cloud TV, Visual networking… We are going to hear a lot more about these rising trends. And unlike HD and 3DTV –it’s not just about technology it’s about opening up another virtual avenue.

Just as you thought you got a grip on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter, the world of social and visual content is about to flip again…faster than you can imagine.

The content industry is about to become a whole lot more innovative and more democratic very quickly. And the next big break is propelled from the visual world

Chris Anderson of TED says the rise of web video is driving a worldwide phenomenon called Crowd Accelerated Innovation — a self-fueling cycle of learning.  (http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html)

But could TV also become a social sharing platform? And dare I say an educational sharing platform? What if you could tweet and contribute real time information to an interview during a live current affairs show, or cooking show? What if you could contribute educational information to a TV documentary in real time?

Last year, Technology Review, published by MIT, named social TV one of its 10 most important emerging technologies that could “change the world.” And Wired Magazine UK editor David Rowan this month named social TV one of the top six tech trends to expect in 2011.

In the US they already took baby steps in Social Television through mega-popular events like the Oscars and MTV Music Video Awards. Social TV broke water with live Twitter and Facebook feeds sliding across the bottom of TV screens, letting viewers chat, comment and react to live shows.

One of the most popular yet conservative networks – the BBC is taking Social TV very, very seriously. They recently exposed their work on a new beta social version of their popular on-demand iPlayer (an Internet TV and radio service for videos and TV shows).

So, while Google is taking its sweet time with Google TV, the BBC is leaping ahead into Social TV land. What’s really surprising is that in April 2010 alone, they received 123 million iPlayer requests – These are massive numbers for an on-demand broadcast service.

The advantage of iPlayer is not just its web access, but its way in across all operating systems, mobile phones – in download and streaming form.

You’d think the next obvious step is to create a new social network service, wouldn’t you?  But the BBC doesn’t want to “create” their own social network … they prefer to send out smoke signals to third-party social sites.

Social network TV – TV is missing out right now on any real social integration that can enhance content. Yet “a social TV experience”, to some extent is already happening through the swarm of “TV tweets” chirped by viewers while watching TV.  It seems, TV can be completely transformed through true social integration, even if it means balancing a TV dinner, laptop or smart phone while flicking through channels.

But in the future, if I’m watching a documentary for example, I want to be presented with a social window (completely optional) that offers me the latest tweets for that program, comments, discussion and most importantly of all – user generated content.

Imagine if during or after a documentary or true story you can access people’s real photos and videos from the event. The experience becomes more fierce, active and edgy– it’s no longer about passively consuming what someone thinks you should.

TV in the cloud? Since the cloud is the talk of the day, why not leverage it to locate our own content and personalized online experience from any PC, tablet or smart phone? Cisco is already “sky high” into Cloud TV development: At the recent CES 2011 show it exposed its  Videoscape platform.  Videoscape aims to do nothing less than combine online content and digital TV with social media and communications applications in the cloud. Love to see how this one evolves.

Some of this is a bit “zeitgeisty” but hmmm, possible, I guess. Everything is moving towards becoming more social, more cloud-based and more disruptive.

So… enough with accusing me of being a couch-potato …hand over the smart remote and let’s start some serious TV chat.

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In 2015…...

  • ­Personalized medication, non-invasive surgery and radical life extension changed the face of medicine
  • Geo-engineering technologies tried to fix climate change but failed  dismally
  • ­Social media hype declined, Instead, Web 4.0’s focused media centers flourished
  • ­Global economic growth fixed most of the debt problem but drove energy prices up, leading to a new bust
  • ­ Technology enablers including clouding and location / time based applications changed how brands interacted with services and products
  • ­Electric car users supported by smart roads led a new era of sustainable transportation
  • ­Smart Jeans that could change color and scent was the top fashion fad

Truth is, we all are sycophantically captivated by news about the new driving force or trend or defining moment. We feed on a frenzy of information frothing out of the prediction mill.  A mill that churns out infinite yarns of “the next big thing,” the new trend in management, the latest behavior angst, the hottest tech gadget ……

But lately curiosity about the future has evolved into concern; just about every demographic is more anxious about their future than ever before in modern history.

(more…)

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