Mindful apps - combining technology, social media & mindful consumption

What do Micro-capitalism, Mindful consumption and “Mindful apps” have to do with spring protests and even winter blues? More than you think.

Looking back at the protests map, the only thing that’s hard to understand is why they occur so seldom? Protests tend to be sparked by an incident or a concrete injustice that inflames massive moral outrage. The Arab spring, the London riots, Israel’s social protest and the anti-corruption demonstrations in India were amplified by people who did not believe they were validated by anyone in a position to make a difference.

Probably no one explained it better than Martin Luther King Jr. in 1963: “When you cut facilities, slash jobs, abuse power, discriminate, drive people into deeper poverty, whilst refusing to provide answers or justice, the people will rise up and express their anger and frustration if you refuse to hear their cries”. “A riot is the language of the unheard”.

Nothing truly fundamental has changed since he uttered those words.

For all the “economic and social progress” governments still act on behalf of their wealthy sponsors, and the most privileged still see themselves as superior and deserving while pretending to abhor that very idea. And since the debt crisis continues to fathom desperation, you’ve got to ask yourself – Where to next on the riot map?

“Riots will hit the streets of America if we can’t resolve our economic, fiscal, political, social and monetary problems,“ warned New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg last week.

Although reticent about going public, the U.S. government is making contingency plans to deal with all-out- collapse scenarios. Rumors have it that the US Army is studying financial market trading floors with J.P Morgan to better understand how a economic attack may occur, what will be the ramifications on US stocks and bonds and how to control rising civil unrest.

While mainstream economists worldwide join the dribbles of tirade on anti-Fed funding, dollar doldrums and double dip recession, a new economic movement is offering an alternative outlook.

Micro capitalism is a third-way economic direction favoring small business and small government. It’s about preserving productive property and capital in the hands of as many private citizens as possible. It ties in with mindful spending to offer a radical shift in social and economic responsibility. One thing that bothers me – is it yet another –ism that typifies the aftermath of turmoil?

Just after the 2008 crisis the Rasmussen Reports series published a survey showing Americans under age 30 were split almost evenly when asked about what economic model they preferred: 37% preferred capitalism, 33% preferred socialism, and 30% were undecided. In February 2010 a Gallup poll showed Americans across the political spectrum overwhelmingly support small business and entrepreneurs.

These results, together with street-level economics, show a need for new models and technology platforms that echo future values.

Micro capitalism, mindful spending and mindful consumption offer more practical alternatives because they encourage and support more enterprising and accountable citizens, with no distinctions of age or place in the economic food chain.

Despite the scale of revenue of corporations like Google and Apple or the billion dollar plus valuations of new players such as Groupon, they do not employ equivalent numbers to firms with similar turnover in sectors such as manufacturing, retail or tourism.

With diminishing job growth, governments will need to start offering more support to micro-businesses. In future we need to see more micro-capitalist schemes facilitated through technology platforms like Google’s cloud based eBooks programs and Google ideas.

“Google eBooks was specifically designed so indies could leapfrog into the e-book game without having to invest a lot of upfront costs beyond the time to integrate our platform…,” Tom Turvey, Director of Google Strategic Partnerships.

In fact the more you think of it, the more technology trends like up and coming NFC payment and eco-conscious social games can help facilitate mindful economics. NFC is rumored to be offered on iPhone 5 from this October, according to Al-Gore’s slip up. If future smart phone e-Wallets truly deliver, we will be able to compare at point-of-sale each item with its local competition, track purchases, manage expenses and more…

With the slew of endless apps and mobile buzz, let’s hope more budding entrepreneurs can marry technology with business models that create Mindful Apps – Apps that encourage smarter spend, social responsibility and death to debt.

*Image from new game Trashy Tycoon created by Guerillapps. www.guerillapps.com

Israel tents protests social change July 11

A year ago, in July 2011, Israel’s middle class raised a collective fist and raged against the near-impossible plight of making a decent living. Here are three scenarios what happened after. They signal what could happen if no political connection is made. 

At the time it felt like the winds of change ushered in hope… that yes, maybe finally, a new era would propel tax drops, public housing, anti-cartel laws, decent wages….

Scenario 1:

But then, with the conclusion of Ramadan, the UN vote and the first thud of rockets from Gaza edging to the center, the movement gave way to the inalienable fight for survival. Eventually the rockets died. The threat of UN sanctions was narrowly avoided and the no solution-solution won again…for now.

It’s August 2012, and the scent of elections is in the air… Last year’s proposals and promises were buried in cyber file morgues.

Now it was the turn of the political hounds. They were back camping out in coffee shops, on the very side walks of last year’s tent cities, carving deals for the morning after.  A year after,  Bibi’s back-flips championed. Once again Bibi and his cronies were cow towing to old allies – the ultra religious, the West bank settlers, the tycoons. And, aside from menial wage raises, an influx of food imports and measly tax deductions, nothing changed. Nothing!   

Scenario 2:

Finally you could sense it. By the end of the summer of 2012, the polarized left and right rivalry gave way to the politics of economics. Last year’s social protests seeds planted a field of new political movements. At the realm – The populist Yair Lapid.

Yair cut though Bibi’s rhetoric and challenged his duplicitous charisma. By now the middle class movement was seething. In a bid to budget for better housing, better wages and more equal social conditions, they protested. But this time they focused their protests  against hand-outs to the ultra-religious, inflated defense budgets and cheap buildings for settlers.

The inner as well as the outer demographic threats captured center stage.

Failing to negotiate a path to a Palestinian state, failing to orchestrate real socio-economic changes, failing to elude international isolation and boycotts, the Likud lost a third of their seats.

The country was paralyzed and deadlocked in a political debacle. No party had the power to carve a sizable coalition. The threat of elections were looming in the air once again.

A fragile but forthcoming deal was brokered between the three leading factions – the Likud, the extreme right led by Liberman and Lapid’s party. Oddly enough not one religious party partnered this coalition for the first time in Israel’s political history.

Scenario 3:  

By the end of the summer of 2012, Israel was exhausted from almost a year of intense violence. Come September 2011, thousands of Palestinians responded to the Rothschild’s tent town with their own tent cities.

Shame on you, they cried. As opposed to you, we are not protesting about food cuts, lower rents or petrol prices… We are protesting our lifelong eviction. Tent cities were set up in East Jerusalem and Hebron.

Groups of extremist right wings physically protested opposite their tents daily. On the eve of the UN vote riots broke out and spilled into the streets of Ramallah, Gaza and East Jerusalem. The day after, protests resumed in Um El Pachem and Jaffa.

The threat of international boycotts began to impact the economy.

The political crisis gave birth to a new political leadership from inside the Likud. The new government began to make concessions to recognize a Palestinian state.

This time – What will it take to make you a Super Centenarian?

Super centenarians coming our way

Not so fast. Maybe not you, but our children have entered the age of the Super Centenarians. The question is – how are we preparing them? By 2050 more than 9 billion people will be living on earth. The average life expectancy is predicted to pass 100 years by 2050… or before.

Jeanne Calment of Arles France had the longest recorded living life pan – 121 years. She died in 1997. Incidentally she attributed her longevity to a diet of olive oil, port wine and a kilo of chocolate a week.

Assuming there will be millions of Jeanne Calments, what technologies are going to help sustain them in the future? Some of them are already here; pacemakers, knee and hip replacements, power knees, bionic arms…

Zooming in closer – by 2025 it’s predicted the average life expectancy will reach 85 – 90. Here is a close-up on research and technologies envisaged to mass transform us to a ninth decade:

DNA research – will help identify causes of diseases. Stem cell research will hopefully cure them. Advances in DNA research are predicted to help us understand most of today’s killer diseases; Cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer, Diabetes…

“By 2013 a complete human DNA scan could cost only $1,000 and take only 15 minutes.” Fortune magazine.

Our children will probably request a scan before conception, as though it was another blood test. Imagine if that information surfaced on the Social Media waves? Yikes.

Today, stem cell developments are moving full throttle. By 2030 day clinics for multiple stem cell injections could become a common preventative lifestyle fad.

Heard of the next banking system? It’s called a Bio-bank. In Canada and the US placentas and umbilical cords are increasingly being banked. The trend is likely to spread fast.

Fast on its heels – robotic surgery. After all, four hands are better than two. Gamification could help surgeons master robo-surgery. Video gaming could be a pretty useful skill. Ok, does this mean my video game obsessed 12 year old could become a Doctor? Truly a Jewish mother’s dream come true…

A lot of us have already seen viral videos of bio-skeletons to help physically impaired and older aged people move. But What happens when bio-tech becomes wearable?

Soon bio-monitors will be personalized and wearable. Bio-gear will wirelessly track our metabolism and condition in real time while hooking us up to GPS.  Eventually they could be embedded inside us. Let’s hope we will always have a choice here.

Looking inwards, Nanobots – tiny molecular machines could help cure diseases. Imagine going to Doctor for a persistent fever. Instead of giving you a pill or a shot, the doctor refers you to a special medical team which implants a tiny robot into your bloodstream. The robot detects the cause of your fever and subscribes a dose of medication directly to the infected area.

So my dear Super Centenarian – You are entering a truly exciting age. Your cyber generation faces fantastic career opportunities and a lifestyle beyond recognition.

As for our generation – our next mentors are our children!

Resources – Deka five.

Gonzaga Manso

Sustainism. Sustainism is replacing modernism – say the dutch duo Architects Michiel Schwarz and Joost Elffers. They would like us to believe Sustainism is shaping everything; from design and business, to food, housing and community.

Their book (oddly enough called Sustainism) –splats slogans like: “Less is more” to “Do More with Less”, From “nature as resource” to “nature as a source”…. “From planning to co-design, from appropriation to open-source exchange….

Ok I agree, these elitist terms make you want to grit your teeth and gag. But, call it what you want, “green” design is setting the tone. Still, why create complex terms when you can use EcoDesign?

Digital surfaces transforming spatial design – In an era of mobile everything, where we touch, slide and click to access the world, digital design was bound to break through walls. Digital panels make the perfect peep holes!

Huffington Post writer and guest curator Jacob Slevin claims that digital surfaces combine two concepts: The first offers a non-static alternative to paint, wallpaper, wood paneling…
The second challenges consumers to experience “teleportation“ – where you are potentially in two locations at once, dually experiencing the here and the anywhere. Cool.

Responsive web design –The idea that websites should respond and adapt to all devices and situations – smart phones, tablets… is already game changing. Designer Ethan Marcotte  explores the concept in architecture. In architecture, responsive design looks at how physical spaces respond to the people passing through them. It demands from the designer to re-imagine what a space can do.

In his book he explains why responsive web design makes sense and why it could change the rules:

“A more responsible approach would mean building our stylesheet with “mobile first” in mind, rather than defaulting to a desktop layout. We’d begin by defining a layout appropriate to smaller screens, and then use media queries to progressively enhance our design as the resolution increases.“

Infographics makes a splash – 2011 and onwards is supposed to be the era of infographic designs. Infographics are beginning to invade the digital world. Their value comes from our need to makes sense of the senseless streams of content. It promotes greater use of interactive graphic maps, charts, diagrams and instructional designs.

As a result we are seeing more and more visualized data. The positive outcome of this growing trend is the generation of a more pleasant experience. See some creative examples here –  http://blog.templatemonster.com/2011/02/04/20-infographic-driven-website-designs/

New age photography –I love the way photography is twisting and turning lately. Take Madrid based photographer – Gonzaga Manso and his ghostly fashion photos. He is truly re-defining aesthetics. Enough with the dramatic white backgrounds framing every brand shot. Finally someone has the balls to go for the mystique to create high visual impact. Take a peep at http://www.gonzagamanso.com/.

Maybe so, but every trend, every movement or social experience, rides its own cycle. And every ride eventually takes a curvaceous turn downhill.

What will happen after Social Media peaks?

As I ink this blog, LinkedIn is experiencing “float euphoria” and the thrill of a Wall Street rush. Within hours, their 7.84 million shares, created a market value of over $9 billion.

So how much will LinkedIn make in profits in 2011? Zero… That’s right, with all the hyperbolic aggrandizement – a big fat zero.

LinkedIn is the first social network to go public, trail blazing ahead of Facebook, Twitter, Zynga and Groupon. These sites are set to pursue their own IPO in the next few months. Oh yeah, this is a hot industry. It’s sizzling.

Punters say Facebook and LinkedIn’s potential revenue growth, has not even scratched the surface of markets and opportunities.

How could they? They haven’t even begun to ankle their way through the largest Internet user’s market – China.

Zuckerman gets this… So much so, he is learning Chinese, co-habitating with his Chinese girlfriend and planning a second visit to the mainland shortly.

But China and its freedom-of-information phobia is no match, even for the invincible Zuck.

Somehow I won’t be surprised if Facebook announces plans to float soon after Zuckerman’s Chinese courtship capitulates at the feet of the Chinese Firewall. After all, that is the precise moment when the daunting truth will sink in:

Facebook’s market share is about to reach its peak.

“With fewer new users signing up, social network users will be more sophisticated and discerning about the people and brands they want to engage with,” said Debra Aho Williamson, eMarketer principal analyst.

From this year onwards, social networks will need to cement their relationships with users, particularly people aged 35 and older, to keep them engaged.

Although market share is about to peak, market opportunities will continue to grow…For now.

B-2-B Social Media is finally carving its own slice in the action. More than half (54%) of B-2-B companies plan to increase spending on social media this year, according to a report from Worldcom PR Group.

But those who will neglect a holistic approach to customer engagement, those who get caught up in the Social Media whirlwind, are bound to experience a profit backlash. I am a staunch believer that using a wide range of marketing methods produces better results than executing only one or two activities.

According to Gary Halliwel, co-founder of NetProspex, Social Media will penetrate deeper into company structures.

A study his company conducted showed marketers were still the biggest social media users.  Interestingly, human resources professionals ranked 2^nd while CEOs were number 11 on the list, outpaced by office managers and customer service representatives.

But a growing number of CEOs, who realize the potential to grow opinion leadership, are embracing the “Power of Now.”

What about the B-2-C market? What about brands? According to Social Media Futurist Brian Solis: “We are looking at decades of almost anti-social brand behavior…..”

I tend to agree, brands to date, nurtured a one way channel between them and the consumer.   As marketers we were all structured to create compelling stories and indoctrinate them through persuasion.

Social media is forcing all of us to become more intimate, more transparent and engaging. Companies are not structured to be so today. Brands and their entire organizations need to undergo organizational transformations to accommodate for a new social speak, social intelligence and social connect.

The transition, although painful is inevitable.

]]> http://canimpact.wordpress.com/2011/05/23/what-happens-after-social-media-markets-peak/feed/ 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 canimpact Day After Social Media Peaks Debbie Meltzer http://canimpact.wordpress.com/2011/03/26/the-art-to-breakthrough-innovations/ http://canimpact.wordpress.com/2011/03/26/the-art-to-breakthrough-innovations/#comments Sat, 26 Mar 2011 14:07:32 +0000 canimpact http://canimpact.wordpress.com/?p=554 ]]> From the Tel Aviv Fresh Paint Fair to the corner office

During a recent project I came across an innovations manager in a leading Australian telco company. It was the first time I looked up someone’s profile in this position. When I made overtures about it to my colleagues, they were not surprised at all. Apparently, it’s all the rage to have an innovations manager.

I began to wonder – what were the core skills of this position… what were the responsibilities… what experience was needed? A recent job description by Shell unsheathed the shroud of mystery:

“This position is built around a team of unconventional people who find exciting concepts …”

“This individual will need to navigate through a land for which there is not yet a map… “This requires a curiosity to pursue the interesting.”

And among its accountabilities: “Ask insightful questions and recognize and stimulate unusual ideas that could have high potential impact.”

At the very bottom of this endless job description I finally embarked on the academic requirements: A Masters degree or Ph.D. in Engineering.

I don’t know about you, but I am surrounded almost daily by extremely talented engineers and IT people. If I handed to them this job description they would probably think I came back from an outing with the caterpillar in Alice in Wonderland.

“The Caterpillar and Alice looked at each other for some time in silence: At last the Caterpillar took the hookah out of its mouth, and addressed her in a languid, sleepy voice. Who are You?”

During my preparations for brand workshops I have researched and racked my brains for tools, exercises and techniques that could extract creative thought, unravel unusual ideas and disrupt my client’s thought processes. I toiled with umpteen ways from; meditation and Mandalas to role playing and masks.

The responses? Well… You can find a lot of them in in Alice in Wonderland.

“Have I gone mad?
[Alice checks Hatter's temperature]
I’m afraid so, she said.  You’re entirely bonkers. But I’ll tell you a secret. All the best people are…“

In time I recognized the importance of creativity to innovation to marketing and the future of business. In time it became a mission – to link the art world to the corporate work place. It just made sense – the more you are exposed to creativity – the more creative you become. The more creative you are – the more likely you are to develop innovative ideas and drive change.

Next month (April 5 – 9), Tel Aviv will be hosting once again the Fresh Paint Contemporary Art Fair (http://www.freshpaint.co.il/en/index.php).

The fair is the biggest, most influential annual art event in Israel, with over 35,000 visitors every year. It is dedicated to promoting the raw and emerging contemporary Israeli art scene. Many young up and coming independent artists will be exhibiting their works through paintings, videos and installations.

Fresh Paint is a wonderful starting point for exposure to the local art world.

A fun, original side to Fresh Paint is the Secret Postcard Project. Modeled after London’s Royal College of Art’s RCA Secret Postcard exhibition, the project displays original postcard-sized art by art students, emerging artists and established artists. The catch: The works are unsigned, so you’re buying them not on name value but on artistic merit alone.

If you are looking for ideas and inspiration I urge you to visit the Fresh Paint Fair. Eventually you too may want to apply for the next innovations manager position.

Exploring Walt’s Imagineering Principles and the machinations of building a dream.

Disney future imagining

We’re pretty damn sure it was our generation that invented virtual reality. As far as we know, 3D HDTV, Augmented Reality and the other hyper realities are a product of the 21^st century…. But in reality virtual reality began in the 1950s when Walt Disney and his Imagineering team unleashed their powers to create a true virtual reality world.

Imagineering is a term that combines “imagination” and “engineering” technical know-how.  In contrast to popular belief, it was neither founded by Disney, nor originated then but popularized by Alcoa around 1940. Then, a century later, it crept into the world of gaming and computer technologies.

Still, the capacity to get into you, and make you feel you are completely into the experience, was launched in July 18, 1955 – when the first customer purchased an entry ticket and walked through the passageways into Disney’s Main Street.

Here, in place of a humble California orange grove, rose the construction of a remarkable new landmark. And just like James Cameron realized when he made Avatar, Walt knew – Disneyland was not going to be a regular park setting.

After all, both men shared a talent – To make us feel like we are completely absorbed into an extraordinary world, light years away from everyday life.

Sure, in the 21^st century, a whole suite of simulated virtual reality applications evolved. But back in the 1950s people already experienced it – at Disneyland.

In the last edition of The Futurist, Gary Dehrer explored Disney’s Imagineering principles and the machinations of building a dream.

So…
How is a dream built?
Not as dreamy as you think.

According to historian Alex Wright, Imagineering in Walt’s world was a process of eight key stages.

1. The first – Area Development focused on the architectural structure and the landscape setting, with attention to propping and special enhancements. The principles of area development were laid out from the entrance to the park. Town square served as the gateway to Disney’s virtual reality.  Every entrant began the same journey with a one-two punch. Disney cleverly fused his animation, film and incredible storytelling talents to lure visitors into a new reality, in a similar way to how video game makers trap their audience.

2. Blue sky represents the early stages of idea generation. At this stage it was boundaries-free for the creative process. Disney let his Imagineers demonstrate how the sky is the limit. But big dreams didn’t emerge out of thin air. Walt realized he needed a talented army of cross-disciplinary professionals who could breathe life into his creations through advanced engineering technologies and creative. When asked about his secret to his success, he answered one word – Curiosity.
“We open up new doors because we’re curious…curiosity keeps leading us down new paths. We’re always exploring and experimenting.”

3. Brainstorming – was used for developing the park and solving problems. Brainstorming propelled successes and salvaged failures. Most importantly – there was no such thing as a bad idea.

4. Dark ride – was a term used for shows and events in isolation that enhanced the sensory experience. The power of the dark rides, like the Peter Pan thriller, immersed people into the fantasy. Together they worked to capture moods and attitudes – all the essentials for setting the scene for a virtual reality adventure.

5. Elevation – Enter 3D story telling. The imagineers detailed the images and settings essential for telling the story. Imagineer John Hench explained: “Mood is created by the sensation of carefully orchestrated and intensified stimuli of color, sound, form and movement.”

The imagineered elements of storytelling generated a virtual reality by inviting the audience into a fantasy in a larger than life setting.

6. Kinetics – Movement and motion in a scene gave it life and energy…. Disney knew that moving stories from film to real 3D environments meant his audience had to be proactive – they had to use their imagination. He was confident they would put their trust in the illusions and let themselves truly enjoy the experience. To Walt – the biggest attraction was the people.

7. Plussing – Walt believed in always aiming to make an idea better – as far as he was concerned, there was no such thing as a finished work. It must always be alive. From the word go, Disneyland was meant to be subjected to ongoing change and innovation, while remaining loyal to the kingdom’s DNA. This is how the vision was kept alive.

8. Show - The show evolved into something broad that stretched into anything guests could experience through their senses. At the Disneyland University – staff was not just trained for the job, they were prepped for performing, for always being happy and cheerful as though they were on stage at all times. The giant Disney characters – Mickey, Minnie and more, that silently engaged the crowds augmented the plight to fantasy.

When Disney assembled his collaborative team of Imagineers – he created an extension of himself, long after his death. Till today it is Disney’s show.  he may be gone, but the show goes on.Perhaps Steve Jobs could learn a thing or two from Disney’s immortal success.

Disney continues to exist as a childhood utopia, a keyhole into a better future, where people can feel good about themselves.

The social TV revolution?

Social TV, On-demand TV, Dual screens, Cloud TV, Visual networking… We are going to hear a lot more about these rising trends. And unlike HD and 3DTV –it’s not just about technology it’s about opening up another virtual avenue.

Just as you thought you got a grip on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter, the world of social and visual content is about to flip again…faster than you can imagine.

The content industry is about to become a whole lot more innovative and more democratic very quickly. And the next big break is propelled from the visual world

Chris Anderson of TED says the rise of web video is driving a worldwide phenomenon called Crowd Accelerated Innovation — a self-fueling cycle of learning.  (http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html)

But could TV also become a social sharing platform? And dare I say an educational sharing platform? What if you could tweet and contribute real time information to an interview during a live current affairs show, or cooking show? What if you could contribute educational information to a TV documentary in real time?

Last year, Technology Review, published by MIT, named social TV one of its 10 most important emerging technologies that could “change the world.” And Wired Magazine UK editor David Rowan this month named social TV one of the top six tech trends to expect in 2011.

In the US they already took baby steps in Social Television through mega-popular events like the Oscars and MTV Music Video Awards. Social TV broke water with live Twitter and Facebook feeds sliding across the bottom of TV screens, letting viewers chat, comment and react to live shows.

One of the most popular yet conservative networks – the BBC is taking Social TV very, very seriously. They recently exposed their work on a new beta social version of their popular on-demand iPlayer (an Internet TV and radio service for videos and TV shows).

So, while Google is taking its sweet time with Google TV, the BBC is leaping ahead into Social TV land. What’s really surprising is that in April 2010 alone, they received 123 million iPlayer requests - These are massive numbers for an on-demand broadcast service.

The advantage of iPlayer is not just its web access, but its way in across all operating systems, mobile phones – in download and streaming form.

You’d think the next obvious step is to create a new social network service, wouldn’t you?  But the BBC doesn’t want to “create” their own social network … they prefer to send out smoke signals to third-party social sites.

Social network TV - TV is missing out right now on any real social integration that can enhance content. Yet “a social TV experience”, to some extent is already happening through the swarm of “TV tweets” chirped by viewers while watching TV.  It seems, TV can be completely transformed through true social integration, even if it means balancing a TV dinner, laptop or smart phone while flicking through channels.

But in the future, if I’m watching a documentary for example, I want to be presented with a social window (completely optional) that offers me the latest tweets for that program, comments, discussion and most importantly of all – user generated content.

Imagine if during or after a documentary or true story you can access people’s real photos and videos from the event. The experience becomes more fierce, active and edgy– it’s no longer about passively consuming what someone thinks you should.

TV in the cloud? Since the cloud is the talk of the day, why not leverage it to locate our own content and personalized online experience from any PC, tablet or smart phone? Cisco is already “sky high” into Cloud TV development: At the recent CES 2011 show it exposed its  Videoscape platform.  Videoscape aims to do nothing less than combine online content and digital TV with social media and communications applications in the cloud. Love to see how this one evolves.

Some of this is a bit “zeitgeisty” but hmmm, possible, I guess. Everything is moving towards becoming more social, more cloud-based and more disruptive.

So… enough with accusing me of being a couch-potato …hand over the smart remote and let’s start some serious TV chat.

2011 in the rear view

If only we could be fast motioned to December 31 2011 and guide our younger self through the vestibules of tumultuous times. Being steadfastly rooted to the here and now, this fantasy is destined to fade into fiction. Still, fellow market trendologists and futurists have offered to share provocative outlooks for 2011 and beyond.

I scoured the literature to unearth the expected and unexpected.  Inevitably involuntary dribbles of retorts cascaded through. So here it goes:

Out of the mouths of Silicon Valley’s galaxy of stars; Robert Scoble, Fast Company, Rob Hof, Business week, Steven Levy, Wired and, Ben Parr, Mashable on what can we expect?

• From wireless – to – “Touchless” – controlling media devices – using body gestures to control machines
• Mobile, mobile and more mobile
• Artificial intelligence is going mainstream (I wouldn’t hold my breadth on this)
• Google TV –through the Internet in our living rooms
• Oracle will  make some surprising acquisitions and head for a face off with IBM and HP when they least expect it
• There is going to b a really big hack – someone is going to take down a power grid or financial system (Didn’t the Wikileaks vigilantes already do so?)
• Microsoft’s continued “cluelessness”

Entrepreneur.com’s – Starr Hall and Sapient Nitro’s Freddy Laker offer their predictions on Social Media:

• Welcome 4G – Higher bandwidth will be in demand, letting marketers get the message out faster with quicker download times
• Conversation monitoring will grow: Thanks to free service sites like Hootsuite and Tweetdeck
• Presentation platforms like SlideRocket and Prezi integrating presentation tools with social media and live feeds, will grow in popularity
• Our interaction with search engines will change – Google real-time information from Twitter, blogs and user reviews will continue to grow
• Content aggregators will be the new demi-gods, bringing method to madness (and make a killing)
• Ratings everywhere - having a commerce site that doesn’t have user ratings could be a detriment to sales
• And here’s my take – The rise of Social Commerce – Facebook’s new e-commerce concoctions will change online shopping for good

And what about consumer trends? Venture beat share some interesting insights on this one…

• Pricing Pandemonium: Mobile devices and social networks will let  consumers receive targeted offers at point of sale – Brands will target shoppers with instant mobile coupons, discounts and dynamic pricing, based on real-time supply and demand
• “Made for China” / emerging economies: Expect an increasing number of ‘Western’ brands to launch new brands dedicated to emerging markets. Levi-Strauss, Apple and BMW already capitalized on it
• “Wellthy”: More consumers will expect health products and services such as mobile health monitoring devices to improve their quality of life, rather than merely treat illnesses
• Emerging Generosity: Brands from emerging markets, like China will be expected to donate and give, not just sell and take, on a global level
• Planned Spontaneity: Consumers will sign up to services offering effortless mass mingling with friends, family, colleagues ….An off shoot –  mobile services that passively and constantly broadcast your location
• Eco-Superior: Expect a rise in “eco-superior” products that are not only eco-friendly, but superior to polluting incumbents in every way

Some insights into energy and environment 2011 and beyond – from “The Futurist”

• Electric cars – sure they’re touted to make fossil fuel cars obsolete,   but they won’t cut energy – they will only create more demand for electricity
• Solar power could come from glitter – from Photovoltaic cells embedded in textiles surfaces the size of glitter (can’t wait to get my glitter jacket and reload my smart phone)
• As the Arctic melts – Europe will freeze (so that explains the current cold snap?)
• Rising levels of CO2 are benefiting genetically modified crops and weeds. Fast growing invasive weeds could become more troublesome
• Environmentalists will embrace genetically modified crops as a carbon reduction technology

Four alternative futures by The Jewish People Policy Planning Instit.

Don’t underestimate the power of demographics – It’s one of the most potent tools in the futurist’s skill-set. It’s the science of crowds with eerily accurate prediction rates. So much of history is dictated by demographic imbalances, yet what is so vastly affecting our lives often seems too tedious to deal with.

In Israel demographics is a two headed monster. Internally and externally it is steadfastly affecting our very existence; leaving the economy, national security or even the nascent housing bubble trailing behind.

Here’s a quick drill down into some of the forecasts and trends igniting the national agenda and why parents of young kids like I are beginning to haul ourselves out of hibernation and lash out at national taboos.

In Israel, by the end of this year almost 21% of the population will be Arab, 9% – ultra-religious orthodox Jews (Haredim), 65% – secular to mildly religious Jews and approximately 5% will feature other.

What could slightly alter these figures in the future are population trends such as the stabilization of Arab births since 1995, the shift amongst Soviet newcomers – from one birth per woman to a typical Israeli rate of two to three, and a sustained Jewish Orthodox birth rate.

Meanwhile, today, over 50% of children attending grade one are either Arab, ultra-religious or other. By the time they complete year 12, over 50% of them will not be strapping up army boots, walking the halls of Academia, or taking a ride to work….most of them will barely know math, or English or even possess online skills.

Most of them will be poverty stricken.

I’d like to say nah! This daunting outlook has a chance in hell of happening. After all, so often statistics are thrown in our faces to bolster weak arguments.

But just a few days ago Israel’s Knesset proceeded full throttle to cement this trend. A majority vote supported a controversial bill that bypassed a High Court decision, granting yeshiva students stipends worth NIS120 million in funds.

Simply put; the government padded the poverty line with an army of fresh recruits who will probably be lining up for bare minimal hand-outs for years to come.

“The yeshiva students’ income allowances should be used to teach the sector workforce skills,” said Rabbi Uri Regev, head of Hiddush, an organization advocating freedom of religion in Israel. The Government paid lip service to the suggestion. It instructed a committee to consider ways how yeshiva students can become a part of the workforce while receiving government funding.

The numbers appear more striking when considering the fallacies we fall for, and the fertility rates: For instance; excluding international migration, 30% of Israel’s natural population increase to date is a product of the Arab sector.

Israel’s Arab population is expected to reach 23% in 2020 and 27% in 2050, leading to the emergence of a bi-national state. As for the next generation; under 15 year old Arab children’s population is likely to reach 30% by 2020. Considering today’s trends, similar figures are predicted for the under 15 orthodox religious children.

2020…. such a striking number….that’s just about the time when my son will be leaving the army. No doubt, he will be expected to study, work, go to reserves 30 days a year and pay taxes to support more controversial programs, more payouts and more pensions.

Only by then, the tireless train fuelled by his fellow soldiers, students, donors and families is likely to lose steam and run out of puff.

Alright, alright… so the Jewish Orthodox children of today will join the work force of tomorrow (with little Math, English or IT skills), East Jerusalem will be annexed by the West Bank and some unforeseen tragedy will drive hoards of Diaspora Jews to the Holy land’s shores (France, the UK, Africa…? Click on Google maps and hedge your bets). Oh and lets not forget – Israel is not immune to emigration of its own. The number of expatriates living abroad is estimated at one million. Maybe their imminent return will re-address the balance?

Surely the creation of a Palestinian state will save the day? Or will the post-split era signify something else?

Let’s face it; a future Palestinian state wedged between the Green Line and Gaza Strip will face huge population growth. For years Palestinian society has been brainwashed into having many children as a political and national duty (did they consider the economic tension and depleting water resources when boasting of doubling the strip’s population in 20 years?).

Some observers, like General Giora Eiland, doubt the region has enough land and resources to sustain two viable sovereign states.

“In few places in the world do conditions demand that two peoples develop a symbiotic relationship; in no other place are the chances more remote.“

In 1949, David Ben-Gurion considered demography a top priority to salvage the state. He thought he transferred to his successors a foundation for a long-term robust Jewish majority, but even he could not foresee such extreme demographic changes.

Perhaps this is why Lieberman’s (Israel’s Foreign Minister) idea of a land swap between Israel and the future Palestinian state has received an unexpected endorsement from Israel’s leading demographer Sergio DellaPergola. “Critics are wrong”, he says, “to reject this idea just because of Lieberman’s general political orientation. Such a land swap may be necessary for Israel’s political and demographic stability.“

As Henry Kissinger noted back in the 1970s; Israeli foreign policy often has more to do with Israeli internal affairs than with Israel’s national interest, as normally conceived (Kissinger was one of the brains behind the book ” 2030: Alternative futures for the Jewish people”,  by The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute).

Today I’d go as far as to say; it’s the demographic demon that is shaping us internally and externally, more than any of us could conceive!

Debbie Meltzer.